Home Prices in Fort Lauderdale May 2014

As always, the disclaimer.  Real Estate market report provided by Casey Prindle of Esslinger Wooten and Maxwell.  This market report will cover the neighborhoods of: Rio VistaVictoria ParkDowntown Fort LauderdaleFort Lauderdale BeachHarbor Beach, Lauderdale Harbors, Sailboat BendTarpon RiverCroissant Park, Collee Hammock, Las Olas IslesLake RidgeWilton ManorsCoral Ridge, and Poinsettia Heights.  Zip codes covered in this report will include 33301, 33304, 33305, 33315, and 33316.  Data reviewed will be compiled by zip code and cover a 12 month period from April of 2013 through April of 2014.  Data is taken from the South Florida MLS and provided by Trendgraphix.  Property types include single family, condominiums, and townhouses.

Year over year sales just took a turn straight off a cliff!  In April of 2013 we saw 210 sales.  April of 2014 there were 163 sales.  That's a year over year decline of 22.4%!  That's an enormous decline.  It's also something that could/ should make sellers nervous.  A number of sellers must have gotten the memo because the number of for sale listings are up by 30.4% year over year!  I'm going to lead off with a new graph which I will start adding into this monthly report.  The graph is going to track the number of listings for sale, versus the number of sold transactions that have occurred.  The good news in the graph below is really for buyers.  More available listings, selling at a slower pace, means more room for price negotiation.  As a side note I'm seeing downward price revisions happening daily.  The number of daily revisions is something to keep an eye on.

Fort Lauderdale Home Sales

I don't like double digit increases, or decreases.  Instability at this point in the recovery is a very real concern.  If prices spike too quickly, and we price buyers out of the market, this isn't going to end well!  I fixate over price per square foot.  I think it's an incredibly blunt way to look at pricing.  The current per square foot pricing, versus the same month last year, shows an increase of 13.4%.  Here's why I'm not that concerned, we seem to be finding a steady pricing range.  That range, over the last 6 months, has really been between $320 and $340 per square foot.  If pricing could hold that range through the summer I believe it would serve everyone best.  Concerns exist if pricing rises back to the $370 level, or crashes back down below $300.

Fort Lauderdale Home Prices per square foot May 2014

Median sales pricing is flat year over year.  Last month I was a bit nervous, more than a bit nervous, about the 18.8% year over year median sales price increase.  April of 2013 posted a median sales price of $342,000.  April of 2014 posted a median sales price of $352,000.  Year over year that's a very respectable 2.9% increase in price.  A paltry gain by most measures, however, you need to remember we're still in recovery.  I say the gain is respectable because it's a moderate step forward.  Panic exists when prices swing wildly in one direction or another.  That's really what needs to be avoided at this stage in the game.  The month over month dip in pricing, an 11.6% decline, I would view as more of a correction rather than a trend.  If you take a look at November through February you'll see median pricing was between $340,000 and $370,000.  April's $352,000 median sales price number puts us back in that range.

Fort Lauderdale Home Sales Median Price May 2014

We've really swung over to a buyers market according to this graph.  As a general rule 6 months of inventory favors neither buyers nor sellers.  Over 6 months of inventory favors buyers, and less than 6 months favors sellers.  Clearly inventory levels have been on the rise over the last year.  The year over year number shows a 68% change in months of inventory.  I did the math three times, it's right, 68%!  Month over month inventory levels are down 7.8%.  I'm fairly certain that inventory levels are going to rise again next month.  As always, this comes with a side note.  Single family home inventory below $300,000 is incredibly tight.  Million dollar plus listings are going to sit on the market longer than lower dollar listings.  There is currently 18.9 months of supply in the million dollar plus category.  My point is that you can use months of inventory as a tool for judging the overall market.  However, inventory levels will differ greatly by price point.

Fort Lauderdale Home Sales months of inventory May 2014

Month after month it seems like I write the same thing.  Active listings are selling in less than 90 days on average.  Active listings are selling for 90% of their original listing price on average.   Days on market are up 9.1% year over year.

Fort Lauderdale Home sales days on May 2014

I can't stop going over the number of properties for sale, versus sold graph.  The steep decline in the number of sales is a bit concerning.  Are we headed for a slowing market?  On the other side of things, it appears sellers are getting into the game.  To have 30%+ more listings now versus this time last year is a big deal.

Last week I was on two listing appointments where I had to turn the listing down.  I don't take on listings that are priced well above the market.  It costs a lot of money to market a property.  Further, buyers come out of the woodwork the first few weeks a listing is active, then disappear around week 3.  At that point sellers try to cut the price drastically.  Buyers see through it and submit low offers.  It's a viscous cycle.  I'm seeing a lot of that right now.  Massive price reductions, a swelling of overpriced inventory, and frustration on both the buy and sell side.  Here's the good news, well priced properties are selling.  Often they're selling with multiple offers.  My point is this, if you're considering selling please understand what's happening in the market right now.  The feeding frenzy where sellers can name their price and buyers will pay it, has past (of course there are outliers by price point and neighborhood).  On the buy side, understand that the added inventory works to your advantage.  You have more active listings to choose from now than you've had during any point since 2011!

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I work as a Realtor in Southeast Fort Lauderdale. If you’re interested in buying or selling a home, condominium, or townhouse (townhome) in: Rio Vista, Victoria Park, Downtown Fort Lauderdale, Fort Lauderdale Beach, Sailboat Bend, Tarpon River, Croissant Park, Collee Hammock, Wilton Manors, Poinsettia Heights, Coral Ridge, or Las Olas Isles, please feel free to contact me at (786)443-7203 or through my email caseyprindle@gmail.com. I am a Realtor that works on Saturdays in order to accommodate those with busy schedules.

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Written By Casey Prindle

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