Fort Lauderdale Home Prices January 2017
I'm in the business of selling homes. I don't enjoy showing the kind of data that keeps coming out, but I do believe there's far too many people sugar coating these numbers. Clearly we're seeing a rush to get properties on the market. When the market crashed, South Florida was really bailed out by the investment buying crowd. A good number of those owners are now looking to sell. Most have agreed that the near term market outlook is going to be flat, low single digit gains at best. For the investor that has made a high double digit, in many cases triple digit, return in their investment, it's time to move on. Those investors can also sell at prices that will undercut what traditional sellers would look to net, in many cases. I've been watching not only the volume of new listings, but who the sellers actually are. In many cases I'm seeing an LLC or seller that bought post crash with a mailing address that is not in Fort Lauderdale. There are many reasons inventory is growing, but the investment crowd and its influence over the South Florida market is something interesting to look at.
Here we are again. Almost 1500 listings. For those keeping score that's a 19.5% increase in the number of active listings year over year. At the same time sales are down 21.7% year over year (from 180 to 141). I guess the bright spot is that we only need to beat 99 sales next month to show a year over year increase! Look there's no way to be polite about this, these numbers don't show a strong market overall in Downtown Fort Lauderdale and the beaches. All is not lost, this also means what is selling has been priced well, which is good for the buying crowd. My final concern, we're going into next month with the lowest number of pending sales in the last year. Sales velocity, or lack thereof, is a major concern and has been.
Again we're seeing sales happening on the higher end. That is keeping our price per square foot, as well as median pricing up there. Right now this graph is really best used as a yard stick in my opinion. A large number of waterfront sales is going to move the needle one direction, a large number of inland sales will move it the other. There are price points people are comfortable with. This largely depends on the property type. A buyer in Victoria Park that is purchasing a run down single family home is going to buy for land value, while a waterfront single family home buyer is going to be comfortable with an entirely separate price per square foot. I don't bring this up because it's not obvious, I bring it up so that you can keep in mind the 5 zip codes I cover encompass beach, intracoastal, dry lots, and Downtown. Very different buying crowds. I digress.
Is there a shift happening away from lower dollar and into luxury? I'm going to touch more on this at the bottom of this post as the luxury market overall is really pushing our price per square foot and median pricing figures around.
Sellers I really want you to take note here. If you were trying to sell your house this time last year you had inventory levels that were 53.3% lower. I know I keep saying this, and I know my readers get it, but I keep going on listing appointments where people think we're in a sellers market. That's not what the data says locally! For those new to this slide, we consider 6 months of inventory to be market neutral. Less than 6 months of inventory is a sellers market, more than 6 months a buyers market. As always the disclaimer, this is an overall figure. You may find a property where the seller wants to sell and has priced competitively from the first day of listing. That seller will still see multiple offers. Man I'm going on some off topic rants today.
What this slide is showing us is days on market have increased year over year, and the sale price versus original listing price has decreased. My opinion on what's happened here is simple. I don't want to bash my industry or other agents, but I need to do a little bashing here. There's a theory in real estate that if you go to a listing appointment, and give the seller a very high figure that their home is worth, they will list with you. Once you've got that listing in hand, the agent can turn around 90 days later when the property hasn't sold, and tell the seller they need to do a price reduction. The seller has already signed a listing agreement, and typically just agrees rather than switching agents. That leads, in many cases, to a high number of days on market, and a low final sale price versus the original listing price. If you look at the amount of inventory, then look at this slide, you may conclude that this has been part of the problem.
Let me circle back to the luxury market. I really do feel that luxury is the brightest spot we have in our market at the moment. If I take all the above slides, then reset the data to properties only $1 million or above, I get a very different market snapshot. Last month 24 of the 141 sales were $1 million plus (17% of sales). On the pending sale side 16.7% (21 of the 126) pending sales are for $1 million plus. There are 20 months of inventory on the luxury side. While that seems like a lot, in the $1 million plus world it really isn't. Keep an eye on luxury, it pulls up price per square foot as well as median pricing figures in the area that I cover, possibly giving off misleading graphs.
Thinking of buying of selling? Now's a good time to talk to me!
As always, the disclaimer. Real Estate market report provided by Casey Prindle of Keller Williams Realty. This market report will cover the neighborhoods of: Rio Vista, Victoria Park, Downtown Fort Lauderdale, Fort Lauderdale Beach, Harbor Beach, Lauderdale Harbors, Sailboat Bend, Tarpon River, Croissant Park, Collee Hammock, Las Olas Isles, Lake Ridge, Wilton Manors, Coral Ridge, and Poinsettia Heights. Zip codes covered in this report will include 33301, 33304, 33305, 33315, and 33316. Data reviewed will be compiled by zip code and cover a 12 month period from April of 2014 through April of 2015. Data is taken from the South Florida MLS and provided by Trendgraphix. Property types include single family, condominiums, and townhouses.
I work as a Realtor in Southeast Fort Lauderdale. If you’re interested in buying or selling a home, condominium, or townhouse (townhome) in: Rio Vista, Victoria Park, Downtown Fort Lauderdale, Fort Lauderdale Beach, Sailboat Bend, Tarpon River, Croissant Park, Collee Hammock, Wilton Manors, Oakland Park, Poinsettia Heights, Coral Ridge, or Las Olas Isles, please feel free to contact me at (786)443-7203 or through my email email@example.com. I am a Realtor that works on Saturdays in order to accommodate those with busy schedules.
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